Inflation shrinks what a savings balance can buy by the amount prices rise, and the latest federal measure puts that rise at 3.6 percent. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis release of October 29, 2026, the PCE price index for September was 3.6 percent higher than a year earlier [1].

Excluding food and energy, the same index increased 3.1 percent from one year ago. Month to month, the overall index rose 0.5 percent in September and the version without food and energy rose 0.3 percent [1].

Incomes did not keep up in September. The release reports that current-dollar personal income increased 0.2 percent, and that real disposable personal income, which adjusts for price changes, changed by negative 0.3 percent over the month [1]. Real personal consumption expenditures were essentially flat, with an increase of less than 0.1 percent [1].

For a family, a savings account pays interest at a posted rate while prices move at their own rate, and the gap between the two often decides whether a balance buys more or less a year later. As of this release, 3.6 percent is the year-over-year price figure to hold a posted account rate against. It averages prices across the whole economy, so any one household’s experience can differ.

In September, prices rose 0.5 percent while real disposable personal income fell 0.3 percent.

Sources

1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026,” released October 29, 2026. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2026